Latest AP Poll Sample Skews to Democrats by 17 Points

http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/266932/latest-ap-poll-sample-skews-democrats-17-points

Latest AP Poll Sample Skews to Democrats by 17 Points May 11, 2011 8:55 A.M. By Jim Geraghty     Tags: Barack Obama, Polling Wow! The AP poll has Obama’s approval rating hitting 60 percent! And 53 percent say he deserves to be reelected! And on the economy, 52 percent approve of the way Obama’s handling it, and only 47 percent disapprove! He’s up 54–46 on approval of how he’s handling health care! On unemployment, 52 percent approval, 47 percent disapproval! 57 percent approval on handling Libya! Even on the deficit, he’s at 47 percent approval, 52 percent disapproval! It is a poll of adults, which isn’t surprising; as I mentioned yesterday, you don’t have to be a registered or likely voter to have an opinion on the president. But then you get to the party ID: 46 percent identify as Democrat or leaning Democrat, 29 percent identify as Republican or leaning Republican, 4 percent identify as purely independent leaning towards neither party, and 20 percent answered, “I don’t know.” For contrast, the AP’s immediate preceding poll was 45 percent Democrat, 33 percent Republican; the likely-voter pool in October 2010 was 43 percent Democrat, 48 percent Republican. The poll’s total sample in October 2010 split 43 percent Democrat, 40 percent Republican. With a poll sample that has a 17-percentage-point margin in favor of the Democrats, is anyone surprised that these results look like a David Axelrod dream? (Interestingly, George W. Bush is at 50 percent approval, 49 percent disapproval, even in this sample wildly weighted in favor of the Democrats.) UPDATE: Notice that in Gallup’s polling, party ID remains pretty stable. In roughly 40 polls since mid-2009, Democrats and Republicans have both ranged in the 40s with leaners. During that time, the split has never been larger than 7 percentage points. Their most recent split, from late April, is 31 percent Republican, 36 percent Independent, and 32 percent Democrat; with leaners, it’s a 46-46 split. Of course, the OBL kill could have prompted more Americans to self-identify as Democrats. Some pollsters are okay with dramatic shifts in their party ID from poll to poll; they see respondents’ party self-identification as flexible, even fickle, changing from week to week and month to month. I am a skeptic of this notion, and before buying into dramatic changes in the party identification of the voting public, prefer to see the phenomenon confirmed through changes in behavior – i.e., voters changing their party registration.