Monday, August 31, 2009

Projected Deficit

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/graphic/2009/03/21/GR2009032100104.html


In the first independent analysis, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office concluded that President Obama's budget would rack up massive deficits even after the economy recovers, forcing the nation to borrow nearly $9.3 trillion over the next decade.

President Barack Obama has repeatedly claimed that his budget would cut the deficit by half by the end of his term. But as Heritage analyst Brian Riedl has pointed out, given that Obama has already helped quadruple the deficit with his stimulus package, pledging to halve it by 2013 is hardly ambitious. The Washington Post has a great graphic which helps put President Obama’s budget deficits in context of President Bush’s.

What’s driving Obama’s unprecedented massive deficits? Spending. Riedl details:

  • President Bush expanded the federal budget by a historic $700 billion through 2008. President Obama would add another $1 trillion.
  • President Bush began a string of expensive financial bailouts. President Obama is accelerating that course.

  • President Bush created a Medicare drug entitlement that will cost an estimated $800 billion in its first decade. President Obama has proposed a $634 billion down payment on a new government health care fund.

  • President Bush increased federal education spending 58 percent faster than inflation. President Obama would double it.

  • President Bush became the first President to spend 3 percent of GDP on federal antipoverty programs. President Obama has already increased this spending by 20 percent.

  • President Bush tilted the income tax burden more toward upper-income taxpayers. President Obama would continue that trend.


  • President Bush presided over a $2.5 trillion increase in the public debt through 2008. Setting aside 2009 (for which Presidents Bush and Obama share responsibility for an additional $2.6 trillion in public debt), President Obama’s budget would add $4.9 trillion in public debt from the beginning of 2010 through 2016.


  • UPDATE: Many Obama defenders in the comments are claiming that the numbers above do not include spending on Iraq and Afghanistan during the Bush years. They most certainly do. While Bush did fund the wars through emergency supplementals (not the regular budget process), that spending did not simply vanish. It is included in the numbers above. Also, some Obama defenders are claiming the graphic above represents biased Heritage Foundation numbers. While we stand behind the numbers we put out 100%, the numbers, and the graphic itself, above are from the Washington Post. We originally left out the link to WaPo. It has been now been added.

    CLARIFICATION: Of course, this Washington Post graphic does not perfectly delineate budget surpluses and deficits by administration. President Bush took office in January 2001, and therefore played a lead role in crafting the FY 2002-2008 budgets. Presidents Bush and Obama share responsibility for the FY 2009 budget deficit that overlaps their administrations, before President Obama assumes full budgetary responsibility beginning in FY 2010. Overall, President Obama’s budget would add twice as much debt as President Bush over the same number of years.

http://blog.heritage.org/2009/03/24/bush-deficit-vs-obama-deficit-in-pictures/


SHERMAN FREDERICK: Enough is enough, Harry

http://www.lvrj.com/opinion/56171937.html

Aug. 30, 2009
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal 

SHERMAN FREDERICK: Enough is enough, Harry

Stop the childish bullying 

This newspaper traces its roots to before Las Vegas was Las Vegas.

We've seen cattle ranches give way to railroads. We chronicled the construction of Hoover Dam. We reported on the first day of legalized gambling. The first hospital. The first school. The first church. We survived the mob, Howard Hughes, the Great Depression, several recessions, two world wars, dozens of news competitors and any number of two-bit politicians who couldn't stand scrutiny, much less criticism.

We're still here doing what we do for the people of Las Vegas and Nevada. So, let me assure you, if we weathered all of that, we can damn sure outlast the bully threats of Sen. Harry Reid.

On Wednesday, before he addressed a Las Vegas Chamber of Commerce luncheon, Reid joined the chamber's board members for a meet-'n'-greet and a photo. One of the last in line was the Review-Journal's director of advertising, Bob Brown, a hard-working Nevadan who toils every day on behalf of advertisers. He has nothing to do with news coverage or the opinion pages of the Review-Journal.

Yet, as Bob shook hands with our senior U.S. senator in what should have been nothing but a gracious business setting, Reid said: "I hope you go out of business."

Later, in his public speech, Reid said he wanted to let everyone know that he wants the Review-Journal to continue selling advertising because the Las Vegas Sun is delivered inside the Review-Journal.

Such behavior cannot go unchallenged.

You could call Reid's remark ugly and be right. It certainly was boorish. Asinine? That goes without saying.

But to fully capture the magnitude of Reid's remark (and to stop him from doing the same thing to others) it must be called what it was -- a full-on threat perpetrated by a bully who has forgotten that he was elected to office to protect Nevadans, not sound like he's shaking them down.

No citizen should expect this kind of behavior from a U.S. senator. It is certainly not becoming of a man who is the majority leader in the U.S. Senate. And it absolutely is not what anyone would expect from a man who now asks Nevadans to send him back to the Senate for a fifth term.

If he thinks he can push the state's largest newspaper around by exacting some kind of economic punishment in retaliation for not seeing eye to eye with him on matters of politics, I can only imagine how he pressures businesses and individuals who don't have the wherewithal of the Review-Journal.

For the sake of all who live and work in Nevada, we can't let this bully behavior pass without calling out Sen. Reid. If he'll try it with the Review-Journal, you can bet that he's tried it with others. So today, we serve notice on Sen. Reid that this creepy tactic will not be tolerated.

We won't allow you to bully us. And if you try it with anyone else, count on going through us first.

That's a promise, not a threat.

And it's a promise to our readers, not to you, Sen. Reid.


Sherman Frederick (sfrederick@reviewjournal.com) is publisher of the Review-Journal and president of Stephens Media.

Friday, August 28, 2009

U.N. Report Advocates Teaching Masturbation to 5-Year-Olds

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,543203,00.html

NEW YORK — The United Nations is recommending that children as young as five receive mandatory sexual education that would teach even pre-kindergarteners about masturbation and topics like gender violence.

The U.N.'s Economic, Social and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) released a 98-page report in June offering a universal lesson plan for kids ranging in age from 5-18, an
"informed approach to effective sex, relationships" and HIV education that they say is essential for "all young people."

The U.N. insists the program is "age appropriate," but critics say it's exposing kids to sex far too early, and offers up abstract ideas — like "transphobia" — they might not even understand.

"At that age they should be learning about ... the proper name of certain parts of their bodies," said Michelle Turner, president of Citizens for a Responsible Curriculum, "certainly not about masturbation."

Turner was disturbed by UNESCO's plans to explain to children as young as nine about the safety of legal abortions, and to advocate and "promote the right to and access to safe abortion" for everyone over the age of 15.

"This is absurd," she told FOXNews.com.

he UNESCO report, called "International Guidelines for Sexuality Education," separates children into four age groups: 5-to-8-year-olds, 9-to-12-year-olds, 12-to-15-year-olds and 15-to-18-year-olds.

Under the U.N.'s voluntary sex-ed regime, kids just 5-8 years old will be told that "touching and rubbing one's genitals is called masturbation" and that private parts "can feel pleasurable when touched by oneself."

• Click here to see the report.

By the time they're 9 years old, they'll learn about "positive and negative effects of 'aphrodisiacs," and wrestle with the ideas of "homophobia, transphobia and abuse of power."

At 12, they'll learn the "reasons for" abortions — but they'll already have known about their safety for three years. When they're 15, they'll be exposed to direct "advocacy to promote the right to and access to safe abortion."

Child health experts say they are wary of teaching about the sticky topic of abortion, but stress that as long as messages stay age-appropriate, educating kids at a younger age helps better steer them into adulthood.

"The adults are more leery of [early sex-ed] than the kids are," said Dr. Jennifer Hartstein, a child psychiatrist in New York. "Our own fears sometimes prevent us from being as open and honest with our kids as possible."

Hartstein, however, who didn't see much harm in explaining basic concepts that kids of all ages will have questions about, was baffled by some of the ideas the U.N. hoped to introduce to kids as young as 5 years old, who will be taught about "gender roles, stereotypes and gender-based violence."

"I want to know how you teach that to a 5-year-old," Hartstein told FOXNews.com.

Despite those challenges, the U.N. insists that "in a world affected by HIV and AIDS ... there is an imperative to give children and young people the knowledge, skills and values to understand and make informed decisions."

UNESCO officials said the guidelines were "co-authored by two leading experts in the field of sexuality education" — Dr. Doug Kirby, an adolescent sexuality expert, and Nanette Ecker, the former director of international education and training at the Sexuality Information and Education Council of the United States.

Their report was based on a "rigorous review" of sex-ed literature, "drawing upon 87 studies from around the world," said Mark Richmond, director of UNESCO's Division for the Coordination of U.N. Priorities in Education, in an e-mailed statement.

Richmond defended teaching about masturbation as "age-appropriate" because even in early childhood, "children are known to be curious about their bodies." Their lessons, he added, would hopefully help kids "develop a more complex understanding of sexual behaviour" as they grow into adults.

But Michelle Turner, of Citizens for a Responsible Curriculum, said that such roles should be left up to parents, and worried that children were being exposed to too much information too soon.

"Why can't kids be kids anymore?" she said.

Key Democrat suggests party moderates 'brain dead'

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D9ABB88O1&show_article=1

Aug 27 12:28 PM US/Eastern
By ERICA WERNER
Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) - A key House liberal suggested Thursday that party moderates who've pushed for changes in health care legislation are "brain dead" and out for insurance company campaign donations. 

Moderate Blue Dog Democrats "just want to cause trouble," said Rep. Pete Stark, D-Calif., who heads the health subcommittee on the tax-writing Ways and Means Committee. 

"They're for the most part, I hate to say, brain dead, but they're just looking to raise money from insurance companies and promote a right-wing agenda that is not really very useful in this whole process," Stark told reporters on a conference call. 

A spokeswoman for the Blue Dog caucus did not immediately respond to an e-mail request for comment. 

Thursday's call was being hosted by the liberal group Campaign for America's Future to release a report making the case for a strong new public health insurance plan to compete with private insurers as part of any health overhaul legislation. 

Health care legislation introduced in the House included a public plan with payment rates to providers modeled on Medicare rates. Doctors and hospitals say those rates are too low, but Stark and other liberals support the model, saying it would result in lower costs to the public. 

Stark's Ways and Means Committee passed a version of the bill with Medicare-style rates. But in the Energy and Commerce Committee, Blue Dogs pushed successfully for changes that would have a public plan with payment rates negotiated by the Health and Human Services secretary. 

The Blue Dogs said this would mean fairer rates to providers but Stark and others say it would be more expensive to the government and costlier to patients. 

The final form of the public plan in the House bill remains to be determined because versions passed by the Ways and Means, Energy and Commerce, and Education and Labor committees must be reconciled once Congress returns from its summer recess after Labor Day.

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

How Goldman Sachs whacked Bear Stearns

http://futurenewstoday.blogspot.com/2009/05/how-goldman-sachs-whacked-bear-stearns.html

There's a new book that's coming out tomorrow on the fall of Bear Stearns. It's called "Street Fighters: The Last 72 Hours of Bear Stearns, the Toughest Firm on Wall Street" and the author is WSJ reporter Kate Kelly.


Ms. Kelly picks up the story when BS is already in the emergency room with a fatal wound. But what she missed is the hit man's bullet that put BS in critical condition. A previous story by Roddy Boyd of Fortune Magazine gives us an insider's view of that hit. And the perp is a familiar face to FNT (Future News Today) readers.

[...cue up Godfather music. Dim theatre lights...]

The hit took place on March 11. That morning a memo was sent out by Goldman Sachs: Bear Stearns is a dead man.
That morning Goldman Sachs's credit derivatives group sent its hedge fund clients an e-mail announcing another blow [...] on March 11, Goldman told clients it would no longer step in for them on Bear derivatives deals.
[...]
"Goldman told Wall Street that they were done with Bear, that there was [effectively] too much risk. That was the end for them." 
Bear Stearns was whacked by Goldman Sachs. Just a few days later BS would succumb to the fatal blow. Then Godfather Paulson stepped in to mop up the mess. And get this - he warned his fellow traders from taking advantage of the situation.
In Washington, Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson was just beginning a conference call with industry executives. [...] He didn't want rapacious trading tactics to further wound a gravely injured Bear, so he decided to put it to the firms straight: I expect you to behave yourselves.
[...]
"I want you to deal with Bear Stearns as a responsible counterparty," he [Paulson] told the group.
That's right. According to WSJ reporter Kate Kelly, Paulson was telling his rival gangs on Wall St. to [...cue up West Side Story music...] "just play it coool boys, real coool". That's after Goldman Sachs, Paulson's former company had already stuck the knife in Bear Stearn's back. And now he wants everbody to play nice?

So how much you want to bet that as a condition of the deal where the Fed bought up Bear's bad asset, Goldman was payed back whatever Bear owed at one hundred cent on the dollar? Because that was what happened in the deal that the Fed made with AIG. Is anybody ever going to investigate Paulson, or is he going to be allowed to get away with [corporate] murder?

And in case you're starting to feel sorry for the Bear Stearns gang, here's a quote from their former CEO Jimmy Cayne that should let you know what kind of people we are dealing with here.
Tim Geithner [is] a "prick" who "thinks he's got a big dick ... He’s got nothing, except maybe a boyfriend."
I guess I should have put an R rating on the top of this posting. I usually try to keep my blog PG, but this quote is from the New York Magazine. And hey, if they can get away with it then why not me? That quote, by the way, comes to us from another book on the demise of Bear Stearns titled "House of Cards: A Tale of Hubris and Wretched Excess on Wall Street" by William D. Cohan.

As a side note, there's a mutual animosity between authors Kelly and Cohan stemming from another Jimmy Cayne quote in the Cohan book.
In the book, according to the Observer, Cayne calls Kelly "a cunt ... whose capability is zero." Now Kate is mad because the writer, William Cohan, didn't call her and get her reaction to the slur. [...] “What was I going to say, ‘Hey, Kate, I don’t know you and you don’t know me, but Jimmy has called you this name, Do you have a reaction to that?" Cohan told the paper in his defense. 
And whatever happened to Alan Schwartz? He's the guy that tookover as BS CEO just months before the final collapse. Well according to news reports, he's got a new gig on Wall Street.
Alan Schwartz, who took the role as chief executive of Bear Stearns just two months before the 85-year-old firm collapsed in January 2008, may be headed to Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N: Quote, Profile, Research), Fortune magazine said on Monday.

Citing a source familiar with the negotiations going on between Goldman and Schwartz, Fortune said the chances are about "50-50" that Schwartz will soon be a partner-level managing director at Goldman.
"Hey Schwartz, you did such a good job at handling the boss's business at Bear Stearns that the boss decided to make you an offer you can't refuse at Goldman Sachs. Just a small token of our appreciationfor keeping your mouth shut. Capiche?"

[...cue up Godfather music. Roll titles. Fade to black. Turn up theatre lights...]

I wonder what will happen in the sequel? Go grab some popcorn folks, but don't go away. Today you're in for a treat because we've got a double feature!

----- intermission -----

I hope you all took advantage of the time off to take a bathroom break. Are you ready for more?

OK, I did a bit more Googling on WSJ reporter Kate Kelly. You know that WSJ story about Stephen Friedman http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124139546243981801.html

and how he was serving on the board of Goldman Sachs at the same time he was NY Fed Chairman in an apparent conflict of interest? Kelly wrote that, and as a result Friedman resigned from the NY Fed. Chalk one up for Kate.


And this is not the first time that Kelly has written about Bear Stearns. She covered the story in a series of articles in the Wall Street Journal last year. Here's one from July 2008 that has an interesting title, "Goldman Is Queried About Bear's Fall". http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121617167587756521.html

And the subtitle only adds to the suspense, "Manipulation Talk Worried Schwartz; Lehman Also Calls".

Now, the big securities firm has come under suspicion, at least from the chiefs of two rivals who have questioned in recent months whether Goldman, even indirectly, might have put pressure on their firms' stocks.


OK, that's the same Schwartz that now appears to be inline to get a job at Goldman. I imagine he's not asking so many questions now. But look if there's one thing you should have figured out by now, it's that Wall St. is one big rumor mill. They're worse than a bunch of old church ladies.

What we need is an investigation by a government agency that has the power to punish the evil wrongdoers. And flying in to the rescue comes... daaaa-da-da-DAAA... the SEC! OK, I heard that snickering in the back of the theatre. No, really.
The Securities and Exchange Commission, which is investigating whether insider trading or market manipulation occurred in Bear Stearns's stock, options, or other securities, is examining trading documents showing that in the weeks prior to the firm's collapse, a number of parties curbed their exposures to the troubled firm, according to people familiar with the matter.

Cutting exposure to Bear Stearns and other financials was a compelling strategy at the time, and many parties may have done so legitimately. But making such moves in hopes of creating broader market anxieties is considered improper trading.
"Improper trading"? The whole world economy collapsed because of the fall of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers and the WSJ and SEC are talking about "improper trading"? That makes it sound like they just exhibited bad manners, like burping at the dinner table. And isn't the SEC the same government organization that couldn't figure out that Madoff was operating some kind of swindle when he hadn't made any trades...ever? It seems like someone should be investigating the SEC! And it's not as if the WSJ uncovered the Madoff story, so they shouldn't be feeling to smug either. Congress? Ditto!

It's been over a year since the fall of BS and still no prosecutions with regards to Goldman Sachs trading - not even a fine! No, instead it seems that GS has been rewarded for its criminal activity. Just take a look at who were the principal counterparties of Bear Stearns.
The documents indicate that in the weeks before March 16, when Bear Stearns reached its initial agreement to sell itself to J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs International, which encompasses the firm's European trading units, was one of the most-active parties in trading securities known as credit default swaps that it had bought from or sold to Bear Stearns -- more than most other Bear trading partners. 
Q: Who was one of the biggest beneficiaries when the Fed bought up AIG's bad assets?
A: Goldman Sachs.
Q: So when the Fed buys up Bear's bad assets, who do you think is the chief beneficiary?
A: Goldman Sachs.
Q: And who was the Chairman of the New York Fed at the time?
A: Gold Sachman's director Stephen Friedman, who was forced to resign due to "conflicts of interest".
Q: And who was the President of the New Yord Fed at the time?
A: Tim Geithner, who is now the Treasury Secretary.
Q: And who was Treasury Secretary at the time?
A: "Hank" Paulson, who was the former CEO of Goldman Sachs.

The problem seems to be that any serious investigation would lead back to Paulson and Geithner, or did I miss something?

I would suggest that the investigators at the SEC read FNT (Future News Today) and pay particular attention to my article on naked short selling titled "The Phantoms of the Stock Market".  http://futurenewstoday.blogspot.com/2009/03/phantoms-of-stock-market.html

They might just learn a thing or two about how stocks are manipulated. The basic recipe seems to be:

  • A cup of naked short selling.

  • Add liberal amounts of Credit Default Swaps to taste.

  • A dash of malicious rumors.

  • Stir until it achieves a creamy texture. Test that the peaks just collapse.

  • Bake in Hell's kitchen until well done.
  • Serve to gullible unsophisticated investors, without letting them know the list of ingredients.
  • I could go on and on and on, but all this talk of food is making me hungry. I think I'll go cash in my KFC coupons. Say what? Et tu, Oprah?

Feingold: No health care bill before Christmas

http://www.lakelandtimes.com/main.asp?SectionID=9&SubSectionID=9&ArticleID=10027

Feingold: No health care bill before Christmas
Large Mercer crowd opposes reform plans Richard Moore
Investigative Reporter


U.S. Sen. Russ Feingold told a large crowd gathered for a listening session in Iron County last week there would likely be no health care bill before the end of the year - and perhaps not at all.

It was an assessment Feingold said he didn't like, but the prospect of no health care legislation brought a burst of applause from a packed house of nearly 150 citizens at the Mercer Community Center.

"Nobody is going to bring a bill before Christmas, and maybe not even then, if this ever happens," Feingold said. "The divisions are so deep. I never seen anything like that."

Feingold reiterated his appraisal a bit later.

"We're headed in the direction of doing absolutely nothing, and I think that's unfortunate," he said when asked about the plight of uninsured Americans.

The Mercer session was spirited but civil - as Feingold himself accurately described it - with most people focused squarely on the health care issue, followed by the deficit as a runner-up concern.

During the discussion, Feingold said he could not declare whether he would support a health reform bill until he has actually seen one, and he said he would then seek out the opinions of Wisconsinites. The Senate recessed in late July with a deadlocked Senate Finance Committee unable to finish work on a bill.

"When I get a proposal I can look at it and decide whether I will support it," he said. "I will let the people of the entire state talk to me."

The senator, a declared proponent of health care reform in principle, nonetheless did not seem too concerned about a potential failure of the Obama administration's effort. He said there was merit to the idea of trying a variety of proposals in various states first.

"Lindsay Graham and I sponsored legislation to have pilot programs in five states," Feingold told the audience. "Maybe we should try some different things. There might be a single-payer state. There might be a co-op state. Let's get some evidence on the ground. This thing right now is not going in the right direction. We might be in a situation where there won't be a bill worth passing."

In 2007, Feingold and Graham, a South Carolina Republican, introduced the State-Based Health Care Reform Act, which would have allowed states to decide how to achieve insurance coverage.

The legislation would have established five-year pilot programs that would have mandated only minimum baseline requirements. States could have used health savings accounts, single payer systems, expansion of current programs, or could have adopted new ideas in their efforts to cover the uninsured.

The senator said again last week he did not think a "one-size-fits-all" approach would work as well as giving states program flexibility.

Abortion, fairness

At the listening session, Feingold did say allay some expressed concern about federally-funded abortions being included as part of a health-care reform package. An amendment removed that provision from the House version of the bill, he said, and a Senate bill won't reintroduce it.

"There's no way we're changing this to offer public funding of abortions," Feingold said. "Nobody wants to open up that issue in the middle of this. That's one thing you won't have to worry about."

One audience member pointed to the generous health benefits federal lawmakers enjoy and wondered if Feingold would pledge to take the same health insurance that Congress "will make the rest of us take."

"I will support a law that will bring us under it," he said. "If I am eligible, I will join it. If I can be part of the system, I will be."

However, he observed, that might not be possible if a government plan is means-tested because his income would no doubt disqualify him.

Finally, Feingold repudiated Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's remarks calling vocal critics of health care reform at town hall meetings "evil mongers." 

Feingold called Reid's remarks unfortunate and inappropriate.

"I've been listening to the people for 16 years, and I have never impugned their motives," the senator said.

Though the vast majority of the crowd opposed the administration's health care effort, particularly a public, or government, health insurance plan that would compete with private insurers - and showed it with frequent bursts of loud applause - some in the room supported some type of reform, including a government option. 

They too drew some hand claps, but much fewer. Proponents of reform repeatedly cited the 40-plus million Americans who do not have health insurance.

One citizen summed up the majority's mood, however.

"This issue has definitely awakened a sleeping giant," the man said. "We're mad as hell and we're not going to take it anymore."

Deficit

The nation's growing deficit was a major topic, too, and Feingold repeatedly cited his credentials as a balanced-budget type of senator.

"I ran for the U.S. Senate on a platform to balance the budget," he said. "In 1992, we had one of the largest deficits in history and we balanced the budget. I led the charge in 1992 to get rid of the federal deficit, and when Bill Clinton left office, there was no federal deficit."

Feingold said he supported the stimulus package earlier this year because of the recession, but he said he would not guarantee his vote for a second stimulus if one was proposed.

"This was an emergency situation to get the economy going," Feingold said. "And I have told the administration not to count on me for another stimulus package. You can't just keep doing this because it creates hyperinflation."

Feingold also said he has not been a supporter of so-called cap-and-trade proposals, and he compared the issue to global warming, at least with respect to gaining cooperation from other nations.

"You know, the other countries won't play ball," he said of his attempts to get the international community to work together on global warming. "Maybe we should impose tariffs. We should put some pressure on them. They cannot be given a free pass, and we cannot do cap-and-trade alone."

Feingold said his lack of support for cap-and-trade and his votes to cut spending have sometimes put him at odds with the Obama administration.

"There's a survey that shows that I am the Democrat who has least voted with President Obama," he said.

Actually, according to CQ Politics, Feingold and Arlen Specter, who recently switched to the Democratic Party from the GOP, are the two least likely Democrats in the U.S. Senate to vote with the president, with both having supported Obama 86 percent of the time. By contrast, Democratic Sen. Herb Kohl has voted with the president 97 percent of the time. 

On another issue, Feingold said he opposed legislation to require gun registration, and he said such legislation would die a quick death in the Senate.

"I have opposed gun registration all my life, and I will continue to oppose it," he said. "We've got the votes in the Senate to kill that."

Holding All the Cards and Still Losing

http://article.nationalreview.com/print/?q=OGQ3ZGRiZmJhZDZlZDY0ZjE3OGFmNDEyZmNjMTVlZDI=

Republican power is not responsible for Democrats’ unpopularity.

By John J. Pitney Jr.


President Obama is plunging in the polls, and his health-care plans face an iffy future on Capitol Hill. His supporters blame right-wing muscle. “I think it is very hard because [Democrats] don’t have the message machine the Republicans do,” says Democratic message guru George Lakoff. 

Even at the GOP’s 2004 peak, rumors of its omnipotence were greatly exaggerated. Now they are just plain loopy. Democrats hold daunting advantages that American parties have seldom enjoyed.

Start with Congress. A few years back, House Democrats complained that the Republican majority was shutting them out of the legislative process. Now Speaker Pelosi and company are pulling tricks that Tom DeLay never dreamed of. A Brookings study concludes: “The number and percentage of restrictive rules used by Democratic leaders to control debate and amending activity on the House floor exceeded the degree of control and departure from regular order exercised by their Republican predecessors.” The ruling party is even unfairly censoring Republicans’ official mailings to constituents. 

Senate Democrats have 60 votes, enough to close debate if they all hang together. Such strength is extraordinary. Democrats last crossed that line in the 95th Congress (1977–1979), and Republicans have not done so in more than a hundred years. Democrats claim that their majority is less decisive than it seems because they are more fractious than Republicans. But they aren’t. In roll call votes during 2008, Senate Democrats scored higher in party unity (87 percent) than Republicans (83 percent).

Democrats do not exactly face a hostile media environment, either. The evening news broadcasts of the Obama-friendly Big Three networks have dropped in the ratings, but they still draw far more viewers than Fox News. That’s why the Gibson and Couric interviews could do so much damage to Sarah Palin. 

What of all-powerful talk radio? Rush Limbaugh reaches up to 25 million Americans, many more than other syndicated hosts. That’s a big number, but it means that at least 80 percent of voters are not listeners. More significant, polls show that most Americans have a low opinion of El Rushbo. So the “Limbaugh Did It” theory works only if he can mesmerize millions who dislike him and/or don’t even listen to him. 

Liberals and Democrats also dominate the hot medium of our time, the Internet. During the 2008 campaign, the Obama campaign mastered social networking and other online technologies. By far the most popular political blog is The Huffington Post. Along with Talking Points Memo and others, HuffPo conducts a great deal of investigative journalism that advances liberal causes. As the Politico reported last year, the Right lags badly in this regard.

What about money? According to stereotype, the well-heeled GOP can bury the Democrats in campaign cash. That image is obsolete: Any Republican financial advantage is long gone. In 2008, Barack Obama smashed all fundraising records and got most of his money from large donors.

He raised twice as much as McCain from physicians and other health professionals, and three times as much from the health-service and drug industries. And listening to his attacks on the insurance industry, you would never guess that it supplied him with almost as much money ($2.3 million) as it did McCain ($2.4 million). No wonder Obama could co-opt business opposition to the health plan and strike a deal with Big Pharma: His corporate ties were a pre-existing condition.

The Democrats continue to hold the money edge. So far in the 2010 election cycle, Democratic national committees have raised $12 million more than their Republican counterparts.

And as in the past, liberals have the upper hand at foundations and universities. Research from these institutions has been especially important during the health-care debate. A Yale professor, for instance, devised the “public option.”

With such a commanding position, President Obama and his party should be having an easy time. Indeed, they may still ram a bill through Congress. But the battle has been tougher than they expected. There are a couple of possible explanations. First, despite his talents as a candidate, President Obama is showing weakness and inexperience as a chief executive. Second, the health plan is so bad that even a mighty political operation has trouble pushing it across the finish line.

Perhaps both explanations are true.

— John J. Pitney Jr. is the Roy P. Crocker professor of American politics at Claremont McKenna College. With James W. Ceaser and Andrew E. Busch, he is co-author of Epic Journey: The 2008 Elections and American Politics.

Saturday, August 22, 2009

Dynamic Capitalism Entrepreneurship is lucrative--and just.

http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110009068

Dynamic Capitalism

Entrepreneurship is lucrative--and just. 

by EDMUND S. PHELPS 
Tuesday, October 10, 2006 12:01 A.M. EDT 

There are two economic systems in the West. Several nations--including the U.S., Canada and the U.K.--have a private-ownership system marked by great openness to the implementation of new commercial ideas coming from entrepreneurs, and by a pluralism of views among the financiers who select the ideas to nurture by providing the capital and incentives necessary for their development. Although much innovation comes from established companies, as in pharmaceuticals, much comes from start-ups, particularly the most novel innovations. This is free enterprise, a k a capitalism.

The other system--in Western Continental Europe--though also based on private ownership, has been modified by the introduction of institutions aimed at protecting the interests of "stakeholders" and "social partners." The system's institutions include big employer confederations, big unions and monopolistic banks. Since World War II, a great deal of liberalization has taken place. But new corporatist institutions have sprung up: Co-determination (cogestion, or Mitbestimmung) has brought "worker councils" (Betriebsrat); and in Germany, a union representative sits on the investment committee of corporations. The system operates to discourage changes such as relocations and the entry of new firms, and its performance depends on established companies in cooperation with local and national banks. What it lacks in flexibility it tries to compensate for with technological sophistication. So different is this system that it has its own name: the "social market economy" in Germany, "social democracy" in France and "concertazione" in Italy.

Dynamism and Fertility

The American and Continental systems are not operationally equivalent, contrary to some neoclassical views. Let me use the word "dynamism" to mean the fertility of the economy in coming up with innovative ideas believed to be technologically feasible and profitable--in short, the economy's talent at commercially successful innovating. In this terminology, the free enterprise system is structured in such a way that it facilitates and stimulates dynamism while the Continental system impedes and discourages it.

Wasn't the Continental system designed to stifle dynamism? When building the massive structures of corporatism in interwar Italy, theoreticians explained that their new system would be more dynamic than capitalism--maybe not more fertile in little ideas, such as might come to petit-bourgeois entrepreneurs, but certainly in big ideas. Not having to fear fluid market conditions, an entrenched company could afford to develop radical innovation. And with industrial confederations and state mediation available, such companies could arrange to avoid costly duplication of their investments. The state and its instruments, the big banks, could intervene to settle conflicts about the economy's direction. Thus the corporatist economy was expected to usher in a new futurismo that was famously symbolized by Severini's paintings of fast trains. (What was important was that the train was rushing forward, not that it ran on time.)

Friedrich Hayek, in the late 1930s and early '40s, began the modern theory of how a capitalist system, if pure enough, would possess the greatest dynamism--not socialism and not corporatism. First, virtually everyone right down to the humblest employees has "know-how," some of what Michael Polanyi called "personal knowledge" and some merely private knowledge, and out of that an idea may come that few others would have. In its openness to the ideas of all or most participants, the capitalist economy tends to generate a plethora of new ideas.

Second, the pluralism of experience that the financiers bring to bear in their decisions gives a wide range of entrepreneurial ideas a chance of insightful evaluation. And, importantly, the financier and the entrepreneur do not need the approval of the state or of social partners. Nor are they accountable later on to such social bodies if the project goes badly, not even to the financier's investors. So projects can be undertaken that would be too opaque and uncertain for the state or social partners to endorse. Lastly, the pluralism of knowledge and experience that managers and consumers bring to bear in deciding which innovations to try, and which to adopt, is crucial in giving a good chance to the most promising innovations launched. Where the Continental system convenes experts to set a product standard before any version is launched, capitalism gives market access to all versions.




The issues swirling around capitalism today concern the consequences of its dynamism. The main benefit of an innovative economy is commonly said to be a higher level of productivity--and thus higher hourly wages and a higher quality of life. There is a huge element of truth in this belief, no matter how many tens of qualifications might be in order. Much of the huge rise of productivity since the 1920s can be traced to new commercial products and business methods developed and launched in the U.S. and kindred economies. (These include household appliances, sound movies, frozen food, pasteurized orange juice, television, semiconductor chips, the Internet browser, the redesign of cinemas and recent retailing methods.) There were often engineering tasks along the way, yet business entrepreneurs were the drivers.

There is one conceivable qualification that ought to be addressed. Is productivity not finally at the point, after 150 years of growth, that having yet another year's growth would be of negligible value? D.H. Lawrence spoke of America's "everlasting slog." Whatever the answer, it is important to note that advances in productivity, in generally pulling up wage rates, make it affordable for low-wage people to avoid work that is tedious or grueling or dangerous in favor of work that is more interesting and formative.

Of course, productivity levels in the smaller countries will always owe more to innovations developed abroad than to those they develop themselves. Some might suspect that the domestic market is so tiny in a country such as Iceland, for instance, that even in per capita terms only a very small number of homemade innovations would bring a satisfactory productivity gain--and thus an adequate rate of return. In fact, most of the Continental economies, including the large ones, have been content to sail in the slipstream of a handful of economies that do the preponderance of the world's innovating. The late Harvard economist Zvi Griliches commented approvingly that in such a policy, the Europeans "are so smart."

I take a different view. For one thing, it is good business to be an innovative force in the "global economy." Globalization has diminished the importance of scale as well as distance. Tiny Denmark sets its sights on markets in the U.S., the EU and elsewhere. Iceland has entered into European banking and biogenetics. France has long done this--and can do more of it. But it could do so more successfully if it did not insulate its innovational decisions so much from evaluations by financial markets--including the stock market--as Airbus does. The U.S. is already demonstrably in the global innovation business. To date, there is an adequate rate of return to be expected from "investing" in the conception, development and marketing of innovations for the global economy--a return on a par with the return from investing in plant and equipment, software and other business capital. That is a better option for Americans than suffering diminished returns from investing solely in the classical avenue of fixed capital.




I would, however, stress a benefit of dynamism that I believe to be far more important. Instituting a high level of dynamism, so that the economy is fired by the new ideas of entrepreneurs, serves to transform the workplace--in the firms developing an innovation and also in the firms dealing with the innovations. The challenges that arise in developing a new idea and in gaining its acceptance in the marketplace provide the workforce with high levels of mental stimulation, problem-solving, employee-engagement and, thus, personal growth. Note that an individual working alone cannot easily create the continual arrival of new challenges. It "takes a village," preferably the whole society.

The concept that people need problem-solving and intellectual development originates in Europe: There is the classical Aristotle, who writes of the "development of talents"; later the Renaissance figure Cellini, who jubilates in achievement; and Cervantes, who evokes vitality and challenge. In the 20th century, Alfred Marshall observed that the job is in the worker's thoughts for most of the day. And Gunnar Myrdal wrote in 1933 that the time will soon come when more satisfaction derives from the job than from consuming. The American application of this Aristotelian perspective is the thesis that most, if not all, of such self-realization in modern societies can come only from a career. Today we cannot go tilting at windmills, but we can take on the challenges of a career. If a challenging career is not the main hope for self-realization, what else could be? Even to be a good mother, it helps to have the experience of work outside the home.

I must mention a "derived" benefit from dynamism that flows from its effects on productivity and self-realization. A more innovative economy tends to devote more resources to investing of all kinds--in new employees and customers as well as new office and factory space. And although this may come about through a shift of resources from the consumer-goods sector, it also comes through the recruitment of new participants to the labor force. Also, the resulting increase of employee-engagement serves to lower quit rates and, hence, to make possible a reduction of the "natural" unemployment rate. Thus, high dynamism tends to bring a pervasive prosperity to the economy on top of the productivity advances and all the self-realization going on. True, that may not be pronounced every month or year. Just as the creative artist does not create all the time, but rather in episodes and breaks, so the dynamic economy has heightened high-frequency volatility and may go through wide swings. Perhaps this volatility is not only normal but also productive from the point of view of creativity and, ultimately, achievement.

Ideals and Reality

I know I have drawn an idealized portrait of capitalism: The reality in the U.S. and elsewhere is much less impressive. But we can, nevertheless, ask whether there is any evidence in favor of these claims on behalf of dynamism. Do we find evidence of greater benefits of dynamism in the relatively capitalist economies than in the Continental economies as currently structured? In the Continent's Big Three, hourly labor productivity is lower than in the U.S. Labor-force participation is also generally lower. And here is new evidence: The World Values Survey indicates that the Continent's workers find less job satisfaction and derive less pride from the work they do in their job. 

Dynamism does have its downside. The same capitalist dynamism that adds to the desirability of jobs also adds to their precariousness. The strong possibility of a general slump can cause anxiety. But we need some perspective. Even a market socialist economy might be unpredictable: In truth, the Continental economies are also susceptible to wide swings. In fact, it is the corporatist economies that have suffered the widest swings in recent decades. In the U.S. and the U.K., unemployment rates have been remarkably steady for 20 years. It may be that when the Continental economies are down, the paucity of their dynamism makes it harder for them to find something new on which to base a comeback.

The U.S. economy might be said to suffer from incomplete inclusion of the disadvantaged. But that is less a fault of capitalism than of electoral politics. The U.S. economy is not unambiguously worse than the Continental ones in this regard: Low-wage workers at least have access to jobs, which is of huge value to them in their efforts to be role models in their family and community. In any case, we can fix the problem.

Why, then, if the "downside" is so exaggerated, is capitalism so reviled in Western Continental Europe? It may be that elements of capitalism are seen by some in Europe as morally wrong in the same way that birth control or nuclear power or sweatshops are seen by some as simply wrong in spite of the consequences of barring them. And it appears that the recent street protesters associate business with established wealth; in their minds, giving greater latitude to businesses would increase the privileges of old wealth. By an "entrepreneur" they appear to mean a rich owner of a bank or factory, while for Schumpeter and Knight it meant a newcomer, a parvenu who is an outsider. A tremendous confusion is created by associating "capitalism" with entrenched wealth and power. The textbook capitalism of Schumpeter and Hayek means opening up the economy to new industries, opening industries to start-up companies, and opening existing companies to new owners and new managers. It is inseparable from an adequate degree of competition. Monopolies like Microsoft are a deviation from the model.

It would be unhistorical to say that capitalism in my textbook sense of the term does not and cannot exist. Tocqueville marveled at the relatively pure capitalism he found in America. The greater involvement of Americans in governing themselves, their broader education and their wider equality of opportunity, all encourage the emergence of the "man of action" with the "skill" to "grasp the chance of the moment."




I want to conclude by arguing that generating more dynamism through the injection of more capitalism does serve economic justice.

We all feel good to see people freed to pursue their dreams. Yet Hayek and Ayn Rand went too far in taking such freedom to be an absolute, the consequences be damned. In judging whether a nation's economic system is acceptable, its consequences for the prospects of the realization of people's dreams matter, too. Since the economy is a system in which people interact, the endeavors of some may damage the prospects of others. So a persuasive justification of well-functioning capitalism must be grounded on its all its consequences, not just those called freedoms.

To argue that the consequences of capitalism are just requires some conception of economic justice. I broadly subscribe to the conception of economic justice in the work by John Rawls. In any organization of the economy, the participants will score unequally in how far they manage to go in their personal growth. An organization that leaves the bottom score lower than it would be under another feasible organization is unjust. So a new organization that raised the scores of some, though at the expense of reducing scores at the bottom, would not be justified. Yet a high score is just if it does not hurt others. "Envy is the vice of mankind," said Kant, whom Rawls greatly admired.

The 'Least Advantaged'

What would be the consequence, from this Rawlsian point of view, of releasing entrepreneurs onto the economy? In the classic case to which Rawls devoted his attention, the lowest score is always that of workers with the lowest wage, whom he called the "least advantaged": Their self-realization lies mostly in marrying, raising children and participating in the community, and it will be greater the higher their wage. So if the increased dynamism created by liberating private entrepreneurs and financiers tends to raise productivity, as I argue--and if that in turn pulls up those bottom wages, or at any rate does not lower them--it is not unjust. Does anyone doubt that the past two centuries of commercial innovations have pulled up wage rates at the low end and everywhere else in the distribution?

Yet the tone here is wrong. As Kant also said, persons are not to be made instruments for the gain of others. Suppose the wage of the lowest- paid workers was foreseen to be reduced over the entire future by innovations conceived by entrepreneurs. Are those whose dream is to find personal development through a career as an entrepreneur not to be permitted to pursue their dream? To respond, we have to go outside Rawls's classical model, in which work is all about money. In an economy in which entrepreneurs are forbidden to pursue their self-realization, they have the bottom scores in self-realization--no matter if they take paying jobs instead--and that counts whether or not they were born the "least advantaged." So even if their activities did come at the expense of the lowest-paid workers, Rawlsian justice in this extended sense requires that entrepreneurs be accorded enough opportunity to raise their self-realization score up to the level of the lowest-paid workers--and higher, of course, if workers are not damaged by support for entrepreneurship. In this case, too, then, the introduction of entrepreneurial dynamism serves to raise Rawls's bottom scores.

Actual capitalism departs from well-functioning capitalism--monopolies too big to break up, undetected cartels, regulatory failures and political corruption. Capitalism in its innovations plants the seeds of its own encrustation with entrenched power. These departures weigh heavily on the rewards earned, particularly the wages of the least advantaged, and give a bad name to capitalism. But I must insist: It would be a non sequitur to give up on private entrepreneurs and financiers as the wellspring of dynamism merely because the fruits of their dynamism would likely be less than they could be in a less imperfect system. I conclude that capitalism is justified--normally by the expectable benefits to the lowest-paid workers but, failing that, by the injustice of depriving entrepreneurial types (as well as other creative people) of opportunities for their self-expression. 

Mr. Phelps, the McVickar Professor of Political Economy at Columbia, was yesterday awarded the 2006 Nobel Prize for economics. Click here to read a selection of his previous articles from The Wall Street Journal.

Friday, August 21, 2009

Health 'Co-ops' Are Government Care

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204884404574362450890157932.html#printMode

The Democrats' latest proposal bears no resemblance to the voluntary organizations that are known as cooperatives.
By MICHAEL O. LEAVITT

Responding to a building wave of opposition to the "public option," the Obama administration is now signaling that it may dress up government health care in yet another set of clothes. This time, it will be called a health insurance "co-op." Sen. Kent Conrad (D., N.D.) is floating the idea, Sen. Max Baucus (D., Mont.) has offered his initial support, and Sen. Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) has listed three conditions it needs to meet.

Mr. Schumer's conditions are a national structure, federal financing, and a ban on federal appointees who have ties to the insurance industry. This "co-op" would be federally controlled, federally funded, and federally staffed. Expressing his opposition to smaller organizations and his demand for a national "co-op," Mr. Schumer says, "It has to have clout; it has to be large." He adds, "There would at least be one national model that could go all over the country," which would require "a large infusion of federal dollars."

I'm quite familiar with real co-ops. As a teenager, I filled my family's tractor with fuel purchased at a farmer's co-op, which was organized by local people to solve a common problem. My family got its electricity from a rural electric co-op. I was later a director of an "insurance reciprocal," a form of a co-op. Co-ops are a part of American culture: people uniting to solve common problems. What the Democrats are proposing bears little resemblance to this.

The Democrats are insisting that their version of a "co-op" wouldn't be government-run health care, but I ran Medicare and Medicaid as secretary of Health and Human Services, and I know this isn't true. When Washington provides the money, names the directors and ultimately pays the bills, government controls health care. Lobbyists will lobby, Congress will respond, and bureaucrats will decide who gets care, what drugs are prescribed, what procedures are covered, and how much money providers can charge. This is true for Medicare, it's true for Medicaid, and it would be true of Mr. Conrad's "co-ops."

Sen. Chuck Grassley, the ranking Republican on the Senate Finance Committee, is from Iowa farm country. He knows co-ops, and hopefully he also knows a plan for a government takeover when he sees it. He's said he's against a "public option," no matter what it's called. Yet Senate Finance Committee Chairman Baucus, describing what he wants out of "co-op" legislation, spoke plainly, as reported by Politico earlier this summer, when he said, "It's got to be written in a way that accomplishes the objective of the public option."

Our health-care system needs real reform. We need to abolish the unfair tax that favors employer-sponsored insurance over self-purchased insurance. We need to foster a more vibrant private market with greater competition and choice. We need to make prices transparent and give consumers more freedom to pursue health-care value.

Every American needs to have access to affordable health insurance. But we don't need a "public option" that would jeopardize the employer-provided insurance of millions—an option that employers would be able to choose at their employees' expense. And we don't need the government running a bunch of so-called "co-ops," rationing care at taxpayers' expense.

The Democrats are getting worried that the Trojan Horse they have offered in the form of a "public option" has been spotted for what it is. So now they are looking for a new way to get government-run health care through the gates.

Let none of us be co-opted by their latest ploy.

Mr. Leavitt, former secretary of Health and Human Services (2005-2009), has served as the administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency and as governor of Utah (1993-2003).

Canadian Doctor Describes How Socialized Medicine Doesn't Work

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=270338135202343

By DAVID GRATZER | Posted Thursday, July 26, 2007 4:30 PM PT

I was once a believer in socialized medicine. As a Canadian, I had soaked up the belief that government-run health care was truly compassionate. What I knew about American health care was unappealing: high expenses and lots of uninsured people.

My health care prejudices crumbled on the way to a medical school class. On a subzero Winnipeg morning in 1997, I cut across the hospital emergency room to shave a few minutes off my frigid commute.

Swinging open the door, I stepped into a nightmare: the ER overflowed with elderly people on stretchers, waiting for admission. Some, it turned out, had waited five days. The air stank with sweat and urine. Right then, I began to reconsider everything that I thought I knew about Canadian health care.

Dr. Jacques Chaoulli faces the media in Montreal in June 2005, after he got Canada's Supreme Court to strike down a Quebec law banning private insurance for services covered under Medicare — a decision the rocked the country's universal health care system.

Dr. Jacques Chaoulli faces the media in Montreal in June 2005, after he got Canada's Supreme Court to strike down a Quebec law banning private insurance for services covered under Medicare — a decision the rocked the country's universal health care system.

I soon discovered that the problems went well beyond overcrowded ERs. Patients had to wait for practically any diagnostic test or procedure, such as the man with persistent pain from a hernia operation whom we referred to a pain clinic — with a three-year wait list; or the woman with breast cancer who needed to wait four months for radiation therapy, when the standard of care was four weeks.

Government researchers now note that more than 1.5 million Ontarians (or 12% of that province's population) can't find family physicians. Health officials in one Nova Scotia community actually resorted to a lottery to determine who'd get a doctor's appointment.

These problems are not unique to Canada — they characterize all government-run health care systems.

Consider the recent British controversy over a cancer patient who tried to get an appointment with a specialist, only to have it canceled — 48 times. More than 1 million Britons must wait for some type of care, with 200,000 in line for longer than six months. In France, the supply of doctors is so limited that during an August 2003 heat wave — when many doctors were on vacation and hospitals were stretched beyond capacity — 15,000 elderly citizens died. Across Europe, state-of-the-art drugs aren't available. And so on.

Single-payer systems — confronting dirty hospitals, long waiting lists and substandard treatment — are starting to crack, however. Canadian newspapers are filled with stories of people frustrated by long delays for care. Many Canadians, determined to get the care they need, have begun looking not to lotteries — but to markets.

Dr. Jacques Chaoulli is at the center of this changing health care scene. In the 1990s, he organized a private Quebec practice — patients called him, he made house calls and then he directly billed his patients. The local health board cried foul and began fining him. The legal status of private practice in Canada remained murky, but billing patients, rather than the government, was certainly illegal, and so was private insurance.

Eventually, Chaoulli took on the government in a case that went all the way to the Supreme Court. Representing an elderly Montrealer who had waited almost a year for a hip replacement, Chaoulli maintained that the patient should have the right to pay for private health insurance and get treatment sooner. A majority of the court agreed that Quebec's charter did implicitly recognize such a right.

The monumental ruling, which shocked the government, opened the way to more private medicine in Quebec. Though the prohibition against private insurance holds in the rest of Canada for now, at least two people outside Quebec, armed with Chaoulli's case as precedent, are taking their demand for private insurance to court.

Consider, too, Rick Baker. He isn't a neurosurgeon or even a doctor. He's a medical broker — one member of a private sector that is rushing in to address the inadequacies of Canada's government care. Canadians pay him to set up surgical procedures, diagnostic tests and specialist consultations, privately and quickly.

Baker describes a man who had a seizure and received a diagnosis of epilepsy. Dissatisfied with the opinion — he had no family history of epilepsy, but he did have constant headaches and nausea, which aren't usually seen in the disorder — he requested an MRI.

The government told him that the wait would be 4 1/2 months. So he went to Baker, who arranged to have the MRI done within 24 hours — and who, after the test revealed a brain tumor, arranged surgery within a few weeks. Some services that Baker brokers almost certainly contravene Canadian law, but governments are loath to stop him.

Other private-sector health options are blossoming across Canada, and the government is increasingly turning a blind eye to them, too, despite their often uncertain legal status. Private clinics are opening at a rate of about one a week.

Canadian doctors, long silent on the health care system's problems, are starting to speak up. Last August, they voted Brian Day president of their national association. Day has become perhaps the most vocal critic of Canadian public health care, having opened his own private surgery center and challenging the government to shut him down.

And now even Canadian governments are looking to the private sector to shrink the waiting lists. In British Columbia, private clinics perform roughly 80% of government-funded diagnostic testing.

This privatizing trend is reaching Europe, too. Britain's Labour Party — which originally created the National Health Service — now openly favors privatization. Sweden's government, after the completion of the latest round of privatizations, will be contracting out some 80% of Stockholm's primary care and 40% of its total health services.

Since the fall of communism, Slovakia has looked to liberalize its state-run system, introducing co-payments and privatizations. And modest market reforms have begun in Germany.

Yet even as Stockholm and Saskatoon are percolating with the ideas of Adam Smith, a growing number of prominent Americans are arguing that socialized health care still provides better results for less money.

Politicians like Hillary Clinton are on board; Michael Moore's new documentary, "Sicko," celebrates the virtues of Canada's socialized health care; the National Coalition on Health Care, which includes big businesses like AT&T, recently endorsed a scheme to centralize major health decisions to a government committee; and big unions are questioning the tenets of employer-sponsored health insurance.

One often-heard argument, voiced by the New York Times' Paul Krugman and others, is that America lags behind other countries in crude health outcomes. But such outcomes reflect a mosaic of factors, such as diet, lifestyle, drug use and cultural values. It pains me as a doctor to say this, but health care is just one factor in health.

Americans live 75.3 years on average, fewer than Canadians (77.3) or the French (76.6) or the citizens of any Western European nation save Portugal. Health care influences life expectancy, of course. But a life can end because of a murder, a fall or a car accident. Such factors aren't academic — homicide rates in the U.S. are much higher than in other countries.

In The Business of Health, Robert Ohsfeldt and John Schneider factor out intentional and unintentional injuries from life-expectancy statistics and find that Americans who don't die in car crashes or homicides outlive people in any other Western country.

And if we measure a health care system by how well it serves its sick citizens, American medicine excels. Five-year cancer survival rates bear this out. For leukemia, the American survival rate is almost 50%; the European rate is just 35%. Esophageal carcinoma: 12% in the U.S., 6% in Europe. The survival rate for prostate cancer is 81.2% here, yet 61.7% in France and down to 44.3% in England — a striking variation.

Like many critics of American health care, though, Krugman argues that the costs are just too high: health care spending in Canada and Britain, he notes, is a small fraction of what Americans pay. Again, the picture isn't quite as clear as he suggests. Because the U.S. is so much wealthier than other countries, it isn't unreasonable for it to spend more on health care. Take America's high spending on research and development. M.D. Anderson in Texas, a prominent cancer center, spends more on research than Canada does.

That said, American health care is expensive. And Americans aren't always getting a good deal. In the coming years, with health expenses spiraling up, it will be easy for some to give in to the temptation of socialized medicine. In Washington, there are plenty of old pieces of legislation that like-minded politicians could take off the shelf, dust off and promote: expanding Medicare to Americans 55 and older, say, or covering all children in Medicaid.

But such initiatives would push the U.S. further down the path to a government-run system and make things much, much worse. True, government bureaucrats would be able to cut costs — but only by shrinking access to health care, as in Canada, and engendering a Canadian-style nightmare of overflowing emergency rooms and yearlong waits for treatment.

America is right to seek a model for delivering good health care at good prices, but we should be looking not to Canada, but close to home — in the other four-fifths or so of our economy. From telecommunications to retail, deregulation and market competition have driven prices down and quality and productivity up. Health care is long overdue for the same prescription.

Gratzer, a physician, is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute. This article is adapted from the forthcoming issue of City Journal.

Monday, August 17, 2009

In Fighting Radical Islam, Tricky Course for U.S. Aid

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/07/29/AR2009072903515_pf.html

Separation of Church and State at Issue

By Colum Lynch
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, July 30, 2009

Three years ago, while working for the U.S. Agency for International Development in Kyrgyzstan, Clifford H. Brown came across an idea that he thought could help stem the spread of radical Islam in the Central Asian nation.

The University of Montana had proposed translating Islamic writings from Persian and Arabic into the local Uzbek and Kyrgyz languages. Brown hoped the translations could have a moderating influence at a time when a conservative Islamist group, Hizb ut-Tahrir, was expanding its influence in the region.

"Islam has a large body of moderate literature saying, for example, that suicide is a sin against Allah," he later wrote in a paper describing his efforts to fund the initiative. "Not a bad idea, I thought at the time."

But USAID lawyers rejected the proposal, saying that using taxpayer funds would violate a provision in the First Amendment barring the government's promotion of religion. The agency also prohibited Brown from publishing the opinion piece, which laid out his case for the proposal, according to Brown and a senior USAID official. A USAID lawyer said publication of the paper would have violated government restrictions on disclosure of privileged information.

The role of religion in overseas assistance has long been highly sensitive for a country founded on the principle that state and religion should be separate. But as U.S. policymakers seek to curtail the influence of radical Islam, they are being increasingly hamstrung by legal barriers, some experts say.

USAID does provide funds for faith-based organizations -- mostly Christian groups -- in instances in which it says the aid is strictly for secular purposes. But the line between secular and religious is often blurry.

Last week, the USAID inspector general's office raised concerns about the agency spending more than $325,000 to repair four mosques and adjoining buildings in the Iraqi city of Fallujah, which was once an insurgent hub. USAID argued that most of the money went to repair facilities that provided jobs, social services, food and other basics for the needy. The agency noted that it had withheld payment of more than $45,000 for mosque repairs because the contractor could not demonstrate that the work served a secular purpose.

Still, some scholars say that restrictions on USAID and other American civilian agencies have undercut the United States' ability to win the hearts and minds of Muslims in the Middle East, Africa and South Asia, where Islam plays a central role in public and private life.

Karin von Hippel, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said military commanders have been given much more freedom to fund Islamic causes -- such as rehabilitation of mosques and assistance for religious schools. She argued that U.S. civilian agencies need to be given the same flexibility.

Von Hippel said many officials have simply steered clear of Islamic charities because they do not understand how they function and fear that their careers could be harmed if they inadvertently support an entity that later turns out to be linked to militants. "We can't just sit on our hands, which is what we have been doing for the past eight years," von Hippel said.

At the heart of the debate is a dispute about the intent of the First Amendment's establishment clause, which bars Congress from establishing a state religion or prohibiting the free expression of religious thought. Brown, who served as a USAID lawyer for more than a decade, said he thinks that the First Amendment does not apply to overseas assistance.

"Our legal position is too conservative. We've got a war on terror," Brown said. "The lawyers are concerned about excessive entanglement with religion. Well, we're already entangled."

Brown maintains that U.S. efforts to promote democracy and build schools, roads and clinics in the Islamic world will not succeed unless American officials help foster the spread of moderate Islam and its a message of peace.

Gary Winter, USAID's legal counsel, said the agency would never fund any program with a religious purpose. He added, though, that "the legal test goes beyond that to [include] endorsement of religion, indoctrination of religions, excessive entanglement with religion. We have to try to accomplish our secular purpose while still not violating these legal principles."

Winter said there are ways that USAID can provide assistance to Islamic institutions without breaking the law. For instance, he said, the USAID could finance mathematics textbooks or English classes for students in Islamic schools in Afghanistan, while leaving it to others to pay for Koranic studies programs. Or if the agency selected a local religious leader to support an AIDS-prevention program, it could try to minimize the religious content of the charitable work. "If you're talking about sexual behavior, you don't necessarily have to get into the scriptures," he said.

Little USAID funding has gone to Islamic groups in recent years. From 2001 to 2005, more than 98 percent of agency funds for faith-based organizations went to Christian groups, according to figures obtained through a Freedom of Information Act request by the Boston Globe newspaper in 2006. Winter said most of the faith-based groups applying for aid have been Christian. He added that the agency is eager to reach out to Islamic moderates.

Some experts, meanwhile, have urged caution on that front. Jonathan Benthall, an anthropologist at University College London, said there are serious risks of outsiders interfering in the theology of Islam.

He noted that when the U.S. government extended support to guerrillas who opposed the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s, money in one case supported a journal promoting militant jihad.

Brown recalled that the agency once learned that a program it had supported in Afghanistan in the 1980s used primary textbooks that dealt with the life and views of the prophet Muhammad.

To highlight the sensitivity of the issue, a senior USAID lawyer pulled an Afghan prayer rug from his safe and showed it to his colleagues, Brown said. A USAID emblem was sewn onto the back.

WHY THE PUBLIC ISN'T BUYING IT LIBERALS OVERPLAYED THEIR HAND

http://www.nypost.com/seven/08152009/postopinion/opedcolumnists/why_the_public_isnt_buying_it_184604.htm

By MICHAEL BARONE

August 15, 2009

THERE are more conserva tives than Republicans and more Democrats than lib erals. That's one of the asymmetries between the parties that helps to explain the particular political spot we're in.

The numbers are fairly clear. In the 2008 exit poll, 34 percent of voters described themselves as conservatives and 32 percent as Republicans; 39 percent described themselves as Democrats, only 22 percent as liberals.

The result is that the two parties have offsetting political advantages. Democrats tend to win on party identification. Republicans tend to win on ideology. Democrats don't have to appeal to as many independents as Republicans do. Republicans don't have to appeal to as many moderates as Democrats do.

But the Democrats have a problem here. The party's leadership currently tilts heavily to the liberal side. Barack Obama is from the university community of Hyde Park in Chicago. Speaker Nancy Pelosi is from San Francisco, and important House committee chairmen are from similar "gentry urban" locales -- Henry Waxman from the West Side of Los Angeles, Charles Rangel from a district that includes not only Harlem but much of the Upper West Side of Manhattan, Barney Frank from Newton, Mass., next door to Boston.

Of the 21 top leadership members and chairmen, five come from districts carried by John McCain, but the average vote in the other 16 districts was 71 percent to 27 percent for Obama.

All these Democratic leaders understand that their home turf tilts far left of the rest of the nation. But a politician's political base is ultimately his or her reality principle. Moreover, most of these leaders -- though Obama obfuscated this in his campaign -- have strong, long-held convictions that are well on the left of the American political spectrum.

These are the people -- the House leaders more than Obama, surprisingly -- who have shaped the Democrats' stimulus package, cap-and-trade legislation and health-care bills. The rules of the House allow a skillful leader like Pelosi to jam legislation through on the floor, although she's had more trouble than expected on health care. But their policies have been meeting resistance from the three-quarters of Americans who don't describe themselves as liberals.

Republican leaders tend to come from mostly suburban districts closer to the national political average. Of the 19 lawmakers who are in the GOP's House leadership or who are ranking committee members, four come from districts carried by Obama. The average vote in the other 15 districts was a less-than-landslide 57 percent to 41 percent for McCain. Only three of those districts voted more than 60 percent for McCain.

In these circumstances, the Republicans have been winning the battle for public opinion and, more important, for public enthusiasm -- in sharp contrast to 2008.

Democrats complain that Republicans have no alternatives on health care or other issues. Actually some of them do, but no one is paying any more attention to them than people did to Democratic proposals four years ago, when Republicans held the White House and congressional majorities.

The exit poll showed that though the GOP label had lost support since 2004, conservatives didn't lose their edge over liberals. The health-care debate has shown that the economic distress caused by the financial crisis and recession has not, at least so far, moved significant numbers of Americans to change their views on the proper balance between markets and government.

"I don't want the folks who created the mess to do a lot of talking," Barack Obama said on a campaign stop in Virginia on Aug. 6. "I want them just to get out of the way so we can clean up the mess." When a politician tries to stop debate, it's a sign he's losing the argument.

Obama seems to have let the House Democrats overplay their hand. He ignored the fact that in our system neither party ever has all the advantages.

Emanuel's Brother Becomes a Target

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125012376373527721.html#printMode

WASHINGTON -- Ezekiel Emanuel, a top health-care adviser to President Barack Obama and older brother of White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel, is emerging as a target of conservatives critical of Democrats' health-care effort.

Dr. Emanuel, a prominent oncologist and medical ethicist who has taught at Harvard Medical School and served at the National Institutes of Health, has written dozens of scholarly articles over the years. Critics are using his writings to suggest Dr. Emanuel favors withholding care from the elderly and disabled.

One of their most-cited examples is a 1996 article Dr. Emanuel wrote in the bioethics journal Hastings Center Report. Exploring which medical services should be guaranteed to all Americans, Dr. Emanuel cited an approach that would favor active people, adding, "An obvious example is not guaranteeing health services to patients with dementia."

In a radio interview last month, Betsy McCaughey, a scholar at the conservative Hudson Institute, cited the article in asserting that Dr. Emanuel believes patients with incurable diseases shouldn't be guaranteed health care. She and other critics have suggested a tie between Dr. Emanuel's views and a provision in a House health bill that would pay doctors to counsel Medicare patients on end-of-life issues such as living wills. Ms. McCaughey said the bill provided "counseling on how to cut your life short."

The White House forcefully defends Dr. Emanuel, saying he is an academic who explores tough questions surrounding life and death.

In an interview Tuesday, Dr. Emanuel said his 1996 piece was "attempting to analyze different philosophical trends," not expressing his own views. Dr. Emanuel noted that he was a well-known opponent of euthanasia and assisted suicide.

"I'm an oncologist who has cared for scores, if not hundreds, of dying patients," he said. "For 25 years, I've been a researcher, one of the first to go into the field of end-of-life care with the goal of improving it....It's a perversion of everything I've done to take one or two quotes completely out of context, without any of the qualifiers I've added, and distort them."

In another article, in the Lancet last January, Dr. Emanuel said age was one of several factors that could be considered in deciding who receives scarce organs or vaccines. "Unlike allocation by sex or race, allocation by age is not invidious discrimination," he wrote. "Every person lives through different life stages."

Rep. Michele Bachmann (R., Minn.) blasted that and other Emanuel statements on the House floor July 27. "The president's adviser defends discrimination against older patients," she said. Other Republicans, including former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, have suggested the Democrats' plans could lead to euthanasia, a notion dismissed as ludicrous by the bill's authors.

Dr. Emanuel and other supporters of Mr. Obama see the criticisms as misleading. "I find it a little dispiriting, after a whole career's worth of work dedicated to improving care for people at the end of life, that now I'm 'advocating euthanasia panels,' " Dr. Emanuel said.

Dr. Emanuel, who heads the bioethics department at the Clinical Center of the National Institutes of Health, is working temporarily at the White House. White House spokesman Kenneth Baer said Dr. Emanuel was brought in by budget director Peter Orszag, and that his role owes nothing to that of his brother.

Ms. McCaughey apparently launched the assertion that Democratic bills encourage people to die in her July 16 radio interview. House Minority Leader John Boehner (R., Ohio) said a week later the bill "may start us down a treacherous path toward government-encouraged euthanasia."

Ms. Palin warned Friday on Facebook that "my parents or my baby with Down syndrome will have to stand in front of Obama's death panel." Mr. Gingrich said on ABC's "This Week" that "you're asking us to trust turning power over to the government, when there clearly are people in America who believe in establishing euthanasia."

Sen. John Cornyn (R., Texas) said the death panel allegation is "probably an exaggeration of what is actually in the plans." But he said it stems from fears that Democrats would allow government intrusion in personal health matters. "The most important thing here is that those decisions must be left in the hands of the families and individuals most directly affected," Mr. Cornyn told reporters Monday.

Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D., Ore.), co-sponsor of the end-of-life House measure, said it was a bipartisan provision that would encourage people to think about issues such as living wills before it was too late. The criticism "illustrates just how desperate some people are to do anything they can to derail health insurance reform," he said.

Write to Naftali Bendavid at naftali.bendavid@wsj.com