Madrid, Spain
Carlos Alberto Montaner is a Cuban-born writer, journalist, and former professor. He is one of the most influential and widely-read columnists in the Spanish-language media, syndicated in dozens of publications in Latin America, Spain and the United States.The United States Ambassador to Honduras, Hugo Llorens, an extremely competent diplomat, tried very hard to keep Honduras's Congress from ousting President Manuel Zelaya. After his arguments and pressures were exhausted, and faced with something that seemed inevitable, he did what he could: he sheltered the president's son at his residence to save him from any violent outcome.
Fortunately, Zelaya's expulsion from the presidency and from his country was bloodless. It wasn't exactly a military coup: the Army acted on orders from the Supreme Court after Zelaya's continued violations of the law. The ousted president seemed intent on getting reelected, even if it meant violating the Constitution, and on dragging the nation into Hugo Chávez's "21st century socialism" camp against the will of the Honduran people.
Nevertheless, if there is still something worse than the depressing spectacle of a freely elected president forced to leave his country at gunpoint, it is that same leader trying to force his way back in. If Zelaya returns, he will be arrested and charged with an array of crimes. His imprisonment will embarrass any who decide, irresponsibly, to accompany him on such a mad adventure.
This is most grave. Hugo Chávez and Daniel Ortega are already talking about invasions and resorting to force. That could unleash a bloodbath and would certainly destroy the weak political institutions that Honduras labored to achieve three decades ago, when the era of military dictatorships mercifully ended. Peter Hakim, president of Inter-American Dialogue, put it this way: "Zelaya is fighting with all the institutions in the country. He is in no condition really to govern."
And that's the truth. According to Mexican pollster Mitofsky's April survey, Zelaya was Latin America's least popular leader. Only 25 percent of the nation supported him. Another survey found that 67 percent of Hondurans would never vote for him again. Why? Because the Hondurans attributed to him a deep level of corruption; because they assumed he had links to drug trafficking, especially drugs originating in Venezuela, as former U.S. Ambassador to the O.A.S. Roger Noriega revealed in a well-documented article published in his blog; and because violence and poverty -- the nation's two worst scourges -- have increased dramatically during his three years in power.
Simply put, a huge majority of the country -- including the two major political parties (including Zelaya's), the Christian churches, the other branches of government and the armed forces -- do not want him as president. All agreed that he should finish his mandate and leave power in January 2010, but no one wanted him to break the law to keep himself in the presidency. Hugo Chávez has already done that, and Nicaragua's Daniel Ortega, Bolivia's Evo Morales and probably Ecuador's Rafael Correa are also trying to do the same. The Hondurans, without question, do not want to go down the path of Hugo Chavez's collectivist and anti-Western "caudillismo," allied to Iran, Cuba and North Korea.
What to do under these circumstances? The worst idea is to resort to force. The government of interim President Roberto Micheletti already is summoning reservists and the Army is preparing to defend the nation's sovereignty. The nationalist discourse is heating up with talk of "defense of the motherland" against foreign enemies. They worry about foreign aggression, shrewdly propelled by Chavez and his crew, in which -- inexplicably this time -- the Americans have sided with the enemies of democracy and the rule of law.
If a conflict explodes, one of the Western hemisphere's poorest countries will suffer the bloodletting that Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua experienced during the Cold War.
The solution is to move forward with the general elections planned for November. It's a solution within everyone's reach: the candidates are already there, freely elected in open primaries, and both enjoy much popularity. Why plunge this society irresponsibly into a maelstrom of violence? Once the new government is selected, a government that enjoys the legitimacy generated by a democratic process, the Honduran people can push this lamentable episode into the past.
That will be best for almost all parties in the conflict. Zelaya may lose the game, but Hondurans will not pay with their blood for the mistakes and misdemeanors of a maladroit ruler.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8104362.stm
US President Barack Obama is resisting pressure to side with Iran's opposition as mass protests continue over the nation's disputed presidential poll.
In a TV interview on Tuesday Mr Obama said there might not be much difference between the policies of President Ahmadinejad and rival Mir Hossein Mousavi.
Mr Mousavi's supporters have continued street protests despite the threat of government force and earlier bloodshed.
BBC correspondents in Tehran say the mood in the city is tense and angry.
Tough new restrictions have been imposed on foreign media in Iran.
But despite government attempts to control the flow of information out of the country, Iranians have been using the internet to send images and personal accounts of the protests around the world.
Mr Obama said he believed Iranian voices should be heard, although he added that he did not want to be seen to be "meddling".
"It is not productive, given the history of US and Iranian relations to be seen as meddling in Iranian elections," he said.
"But when I see violence directed at peaceful protesters, when I see peaceful dissent being suppressed… it is of concern to me and it is of concern to the American people."
Speaking later in the television interview, he downplayed the importance to the world of the struggle for power in Iran.
"The difference between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi in terms of their actual policies may not be as great as has been advertised," he said.
Earlier on Tuesday, the US state department said it had asked the social networking site Twitter to delay maintenance work so that Iranians could keep using it as a communications tool.
Result in question
The BBC's Justin Webb, in Washington, says Mr Obama is wary of the US becoming sucked into a protest movement in favour of Mr Mousavi, particularly as some intelligence reports suggest that Mr Ahmadinejad might have genuinely won the election.
Mr Obama has been under pressure from some conservative politicians in the US to openly support the protesters, who claim Mr Ahmadinejad's re-election is the product of vote rigging.
Republican John McCain, Mr Obama's defeated 2008 election rival, said: "He should speak out that this is a corrupt, fraud, sham of an election."
Iran's powerful Guardian Council says it is ready to recount some votes from the poll. A spokesman for the council, Abbas Ali Kadkhoda'i, told the state broadcaster Irin that the council had met representatives of the presidential candidates and would look into their allegations.
But opposition candidates have demanded a full re-run of the election.
President Ahmadinejad was declared the easy victor of the presidential poll on Saturday, with results giving him 63% of votes against 34% for Mr Mousavi.
Widespread anger at the result brought hundreds of thousands of Mr Mousavi's supporters on to the streets on Monday and eight protesters died when a rally ended in violence.
A witness told the BBC that Tuesday's rally in northern Tehran was even bigger than Monday's - though this cannot be independently confirmed - and the state Press TV also described it as large.
Witnesses described demonstrators walking in near silence towards state TV headquarters - apparently anxious not to be depicted as hooligans by the authorities.
Thousands of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's supporters staged a counter-rally in Vali Asr Square in central Tehran - some bussed in from the provinces, correspondents say.
A BBC correspondent in Tehran said that protesters also blocked roads with their cars, and police set up roadblocks to control gatherings of demonstrators.
As night fell, residents took to the roof-tops of their houses to shout protest messages across the city, a scene not witnessed since the final days of the Shah, our correspondent says.
Update 19 June 2009: an earlier version of our caption was incorrect. We wrongly stated that this was a pro-Mousavi rally when in fact it was a pro-Ahmadinejad rally.
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